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EU leaders have gathered in the Belgian capital for year-end discussions with a pivotal choice on using frozen Russian Federation assets to boost the Ukrainian defence in the war against Russia.

“We have a simple option: either funds now, or blood in the future,” warned the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “I’m not talking about Ukraine alone, I’m talking about the entire continent.”

The 27-member union is working urgently to fortify Ukraine's position while ex-American leader Donald Trump pushes for a quick settlement to end the fighting as the war drags towards the four-year anniversary.

The Financial Crunch and the Controversial Plan

European officials calculate Ukraine needs an extra €135bn ($159bn) to stay afloat during the next two years, with the cash crunch set to start in April. To plug this hole, the European Commission has put forward a plan to tap some €210bn of Russian central bank assets seized within the bloc.

Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the assets plan was essential to ramp up pressure on Vladimir Putin and send “a strong message to Russia.”

A Divided Union: Opposition and Juridical Concerns

However, a notable group of dissenters, spearheaded by Belgium—where the headquarters of Euroclear, which holds most the Russian assets—has been voicing questions about potential legal issues. Nations including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Italy, Malta, and Slovakia have also expressed reservations.

From a procedural standpoint, this group may not be sufficient to veto the plan should a vote be held under qualified majority voting rules. But politically, it creates the process extremely difficult for all parties concerned.

But there is no sign of a middle ground, as the only other pathway—focusing on European Union joint borrowing—would require unanimity, and would almost certainly be blocked by Hungary, which categorically rejects any additional assistance for Ukraine.

Leaders’ Comments Ahead of the Negotiations

European leaders have insisted that the summit discussions will last as long as it is necessary to reach an agreement, warning that Ukraine’s survival and Europe’s credibility are at stake.

• Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, declared she would not depart from the meeting until an deal is reached.
• In contrast, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico reportedly remarked that they can keep him there until the new year, and he would not back it.
• Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to participate in the summit in a last-ditch effort to persuade the skeptical nations.

Firm Resistance from Hungary

The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was uncompromising, labeling the idea of using frozen Russian funds “foolish” and amounting to “entering the conflict.” He expressed agreement for Belgium’s cautious stance.

Calls for Consensus and a Resolution

Other EU heads of state emphasized the critical need for a resolution.

• António Costa, European Council president, vowed: “We will work on this today, and if needed tomorrow, but we will never leave the summit before reaching a final decision.”
• Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, noted that work to address Belgium’s concerns and distribute the risk equally were ongoing. She estimated the chances of a successful outcome at “50/50.”
• Micheál Martin, the Irish leader, stated his country was “strongly in support” of the use of the frozen funds.

The scene is prepared for a possibly long and strained bargaining session in Brussels, with the fate of significant monetary support for a nation at war hanging in the balance.