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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."